Assessing Offseason Movement for All 16 NFC Teams

Brandon Marshall, the prize of the Bears' stellar offseason

Earlier today, we assessed the AFC teams.  This post looks at the NFC.  As with the AFC, we've looked specifically at a few NFC teams throughout the offseason, including the Redskins, Bears, Bucs, Rams, Vikings, and the entire NFC East.  As before, some values have changed due to player movement during training camp.

See the AFC post for full methodology.  Cliff notes:

1. Just non-rookies are considered.  No draft picks; they're assessed here.  (No UFAs either.)
2. Each player gets a rating based on PFR's AV rating:

2009 AV + 2 x 2010 AV + 3 x 2011 AV

3. The sum of the values of players leaving the roster from last year to this year is subtracted from the sum of the values of the players entering the roster from last year to this year.  The result is the net value gained / lost.

4. Since more accomplished players are typically replaced with younger, less accomplished ones, most teams (all but one this year) had net negative values.

As our picture impiles, the top offseason in the NFC - and the entire NFL - belongs to the Chicago Bears.  Full list after the jump . . .

The NFC teams, ranked by net value gained:

	Team	’11 W-L	Net value	Value Gained	Value Lost	Most valuable additions	Most valuable losses
1	Bears	8-8	+9	268	259	Brandon Marshall (WR, 56), J. Campbell (QB, 41)	A. Adams (DT, 32), B. Meriweather (DB, 28)
2	Cardinals	8-8	-48	159	207	William Gay (CB, 33), Todd Heap (TE, 31)	Clark Haggans (LB, 41), R. Marshall (DB, 37)
3	Bucs	4-12	-62	287	349	Carl Nicks (G, 84), Vincent Jackson (WR, 53)	Kellen Winslow (TE, 46), Geno Hayes (LB, 37)
4	Niners	13-3	-70	163	233	C. Haggans (LB, 41), M. Manningham (WR, 35)	Parys Haralson (DE, 47), Adam Snyder (G, 29)
5	Saints	13-3	-88	239	327	Curtis Lofton (LB, 53), David Hawthorne (LB, 51)	Carl Nicks (G, 84), Jonathan Vilma (LB, 50)
6	Falcons	10-6	-93	82	175	Asante Samuel (CB, 50), Chris Hope (S, 23)	Curtis Lofton (LB, 53), Will Stivek (OT, 25)
7	Panthers	6-10	-103	155	258	Mike Tolber (RB, 45), Dwan Edwards (DT, 37)	Jeremy Shockey (TE, 39), T. Wharton (OT, 36)
8	Packers	15-1	-144	91	235	Jeff Saturday (C, 45), Cedric Benson (RB, 44)	Scott Wells (C, 60), Chad Clifton (OT, 41)
9	Redskins	5-11	-147	185	332	Pierre Garcon (WR, 46), B. Meriweather (DB, 28)	Jabar Gaffney (WR, 41), Rocky McIntosh (LB, 34)
10	Seahawks	7-9	-161	119	280	Jason Jones (DE, 36), Braylon Edwards (WR, 26)	David Hawthorne (LB, 51), T. Jackson (QB, 30)
11	Lions	10-6	-167	72	239	Drayton Florence (CB, 36), Jacob Lacey (CB, 26)	Eric Wright (DB, 41), Chris Harris (DB, 40)
12	Eagles	8-8	-196	77	273	DeMeco Ryans (LB, 38), Demetress Bell (DE, 26)	Asante Samuel (CB, 50), Vince Young (QB, 29)
13	Cowboys	8-8	-198	167	365	Kyle Orton (QB, 42), Brandon Carr (CB, 41)	T. Newman (CB, 44), Bradie James (LB, 41)
14	Rams	2-14	-221	528	549	Scott Wells (C, 60), Kendall Langford (DE, 42)	James Hall (DE, 48), Fred Robbins (LB, 43)
15	Giants	9-7	-257	63	320	Sean Locklear (OT, 22), M. Bennett (TE, 20)	K. McKenzie (OT, 47), M. Manningham (WR, 35)
16	Vikings	3-13	-333	57	390	Marvin Mitchell (LB, 15), John Carlson (TE, 14)	EJ Henderson (LB, 46), D. McNabb (QB, 41)

Our observations:

1. As noted above, the Bears had the best offseason of any team, and were the only ones with a positive net value gained.  In addition to Marshall, they added 4 other players with value of 25 or more (Campbell, RB Michael Bush (39), LB Geno Hayes (37), and DT Matt Toeaina (27)).  On the flip side, they didn't lose a single player who had an AV of 4 for last season.

2. The Cardinals (!?) may not have a quarterback, but they had the league's second-best offseason by our numbers.  Arizona lost just 3 players with values over 20 (Haggans, Marshall, and the retiring Joey Porter), while adding 5.

3. The Super Bowl champs may be ripe for a fall; they had the conference's second-worst offseason.  The offense certainly looked out of sync last night -- not the least of which due to the line play (they lost 16-game starter McKenzie) and the WR play (Victor Cruz certainly seemed to have a case of the drops last night).

4. The Bucs had a very solid offseason, led by the #1 signing by AV in Carl "Big Brickhouse" Nicks from New Orleans.  With the Saints and Falcons seemingly taking a step back, could the Bucs return to 2010 form and make the playoffs?

Can Big Brick House Carl Nicks spear the turnaround in Tampa?

Stay tuned for our full season preview . . .

Think we're crazy?  Think we're brilliant?  Tell us in the comments!

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