The Bears' Offseason: Marshall and Cutler, Together Again

Todd O'Connor and the Super Fans may enjoy Brandon Marshall even more than their Polish sausage

It was an active offseason for the Chicago Bears, the fourth team whose offseason wins and losses we profile here on the BQB.  The Bears made their biggest splash by trading for Brandon Marshall, but also picked up other strong players who should start and provide depth in 2012.  Don't forget, the Bears went 8-8 last year but started 7-3 before injuries to QB Jay Cutler and RB Matt Forte doomed the offense.

After the jump, why we're bullish on what the Bears did in the offseason:

11 players with positive value left the Bears' roster via free agency, release, trade, or retirement this offseason.  Again, we use Pro Football Reference's AV formula in a tweaked manner:

(3 x 2011 AV) + (2 x 2010 AV) + (1 x 2009 AV)

Non-Rookies who Left the Bears this Offseason

	Pos.	Player	Value	2011 Games Started	New Team
1	DT	Anthony Adams	32	4	Free Agent
2	FS	Brandon Meriweather	28	4	Redskins
3	WR	Roy Williams	27	9	Free Agent
4	DT	Amobi Okoye	25	1	Bucs
5	RB	Marion Barber	23	1	Retired
6	G/T	Frank Omiyale	23	3	Seahawks
7	CB	Zackary Bowman	15	1	Vikings
8	CB	Corey Graham	15	0	Ravens
9	QB	Caleb Hanie	6	4	Broncos
10	FS	Winston Venable	3	0	Free Agent
11	WR	Max Komar	2	1	Free Agent
TOTAL			199	28

The Bears added 13 players with positive value:

Non-Rookies who Joined the Bears This Offseason

	Pos.	Player	Value	2011 Games Started	Old Team
1	WR	Brandon Marshall	56	16	Dolphins
2	QB	Jason Campbell	41	6	Raiders
3	RB	Michael Bush	39	6	Bears
4	LB	Geno Hayes	34	14	Bucs
5	OG	Chilo Rachal	21	3	Niners
6	DB	Kelvin Hayden	16	1	Falcons
7	DB	Jonathan Wilhite	12	2	Broncos
8	WR	Eric Weems	10	2	Falcons
9	LB	Blake Costanzo	7	0	Niners
10	WR	Devin Thomas	3	0	Giants
11	DT	Nate Collins	3	0	Jaguars
12	DT	DeMario Pressley	1	0	Panthers
13	DT	John McCargo	1	0	Texans
TOTAL			244	50

Our observations:

1. Numerically, the Bears got better.  They're the first team we've profiled to gain more value points than they lost, 244 to 199.  They also picked up more total games started than they lost as well, 50 to 28.

2. They only lost one player who started more than 4 games last year.  Roy Williams was that starter and he only found the end zone twice last year while barely exceeding 500 yards receiving.  It goes without saying that mercurial Brandon Marshall, acquired via trade, is a major upgrade, having gone over 1,000 yards each of the past 5 seasons.  Marshall's best seasons statistically were 2007 and 2008 with the Broncos.  Who played QB for the Broncos those years?  Jay Cutler, the Bears current QB.  If Marshall can refrain from predicting he'll be kicked out of games in the second quarter, he could be poised for a monster season.

Should Bears fans get used to seeing back-bumps from a re-united Marshall and Cutler?

3. The Bears suffered without Cutler last year.  In case he's affected by injury again, Jason Campbell, with 70 career starts under his belt, represents perhaps the best backup QB in the league and is a major upgrade over Caleb Hanie.

4. The Matt Forte issue looms large.  The Bears made Forte their franchise player, and he and the Bears are mired in negotiations for a longer-term deal.  If they fail to reach one, there is speculation that Forte may hold out rather than play on a one-year contract.  The Bears did well to sign Michael Bush from Oakland for depth at RB.  But Forte was the 4th most valuable player on last year's roster, and the most valuable one on offense.  Should the Bears lose Forte and his 65 points of value (higher than any player they acquired or lost in the offseason), the Bears could struggle offensively.

5. Regardless of their offseason moves, the Bears are still really talented defensively.  When you consider that their top defensive signing was LB Geno Hayes, who started 14 games for the Bucs but was brought in exclusively to provide depth, it underscores how strong the Bears defensive lineup really is.  The Bears' front-seven boasts 3 players with values over 65 -- DE Julius Peppers (80), LB Lance Briggs (67), and LB Brian Urlacher (66).  By comparison, only one player on the 3 other rosters we've considered so far had a value over 65 (Washington's London Fletcher).

It's safe to say the Bears upgraded their roster significantly in the offseason.  Although we weren't so high on their draft (we said it was the fifth-worst), the upgrades via free agency and trades may push the team over .500.  If Matt Forte shows up to camp and if Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler get their chemistry back, the Monster of the Midway could complement their stalwart defense with a potent offense.

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