Offseason Review: NFC East

In an effort to get our team offseason reviews done by the Giants-Cowboys game, we're combining the remaining teams in each division in a single post.  Today, we look at the NFC East.  We covered the Redskins back in May and look at the other three teams below.

For those of you who haven't been following along:

1. We're looking only at roster changes from year-to-year; Aaron Rodgers is the best player in the game, but the Packers don't get credit for having him on their roster because he was on it last year.  The Broncos, on the other hand, get credit for acquiring Peyton Manning.

2. We're not considering rookies -- neither draft picks nor undrafted free agents.  You can see our draft rankings here and we'll consider them in our mega-NFL preview in a few weeks.

3. The two main quantitative metrics are "starts gained or lost" and "value gained or lost."  Starts are straightforward -- if a player started a game in 2011 and left the team, that's a negative; if a player started a game in 2011 and joined the team, that's a positive.  So if a team loses a player who started 8 games but gains one who started 10 games, that's a net of +2.

4. "Value" is defined using a weighted version of Pro Football Reference's AV ratings, considering the past 3 years in increasing order of importance:

Value = 2009 AV + 2 x 2010 AV + 3 x 2011 AV

5. That's where the quantitative ends and the qualitative begins; we opine on what the numbers mean for each team at the end of every post.

With that out of the way, who got better and worse in the NFC East?  The 4 teams are listed after the jump in order of most improved to least improved.

NFC East Offseason Assessment

Team	2011 Record	2011 Expected Record	Value Gained / Lost	Starts Gained / Lost
Redskins	5-11	6.1-9.9	0	8
Eagles	8-8	9.5-6.5	-91	1
Cowboys	8-8	8.5-7.5	-127	-30
Giants	9-7	7.9-8.1	-159	-59

Note that the Redskins are the best team despite having gained or lost 0 value.  This is actually a good number; we've looked at 14 teams so far and only 2 -- the Bears and the Bucs -- have gained value.  Of those 14, the average is around -60 value points.  This seems natural given the formula as "valuable" players retire or play with less frequency and less experienced "less valuable" players step up and fill their roles.

So by that metric, the Redskins had an above-average offseason and the Eagles, Cowboys, and Giants all had below average offseasons.

Hey Shanny!  You didn't get worse this season!

We're still calibrating exactly how much this will matter for our yearly predictions, but consider that the Redskins, according to their expected record, were only 1.8 games worse than the Super Bowl champion Giants last year.  And by these metrics, they had a much better offseason.  Reason for optimism inside the Beltway?  And reason for concern for the defending champs?

A quick look at the rest of the teams below:

Eagles:
Assuming Michael Vick's OK, the Eagles lost 11 players with positive value from last season:

Pos.	Player	2011 Starts	Value	2012 Team
CB	Asante Samuel	14	50	Falcons
QB	Vince Young	3	29	Bills
OT	Winston Justice	1	25	Colts
LB	Moise Fokou	7	22	Colts
WR	Steve Smith	1	22	Rams
DE	Juque Parker	0	21	Browns
RB	Ronnie Brown	2	16	Chargers
DT	Trevor Laws	1	11	Rams
C/G	Jamaal Jackson	0	9	Free Agent
FB	Owen Schmitt	5	8	Raiders
DE	Victor Abiamiri	0	3	Free Agent
Total		34	216

Really only 1 legitimate starter in that group in Samuel, who appears to have peaked as a player.  To boot, the Eagles have a legitimate starting CB in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie who basically played nickel back last year but made the Pro Bowl in 2009 with Arizona.  (Note: It appears DRC will start the opener; many thought he might be suspended for his hit on Steelers QB Byron Leftwich.)

With Asante Samuel gone, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie should step right in

The Eagles acquired 11 players with positive value from last season:

Pos.	Player	2011 Starts	Value	2011 Team
LB	DeMeco Ryans	16	38	Texans
FS	OJ Atogwe	7	33	Redskins
LT	Demetrius Bell	6	26	Bills
G/T	Mike Gibson	0	6	Seahawks
DB	Kevin Thomas	5	6	Colts
QB	Trent Edwards	0	4	None
TE	Thomas Welch	1	3	Patriots
LB	Adrian Moten	0	3	Seahawks
DB	Trevard Lindley	0	2	None
WR	Mardy Gilyard	0	2	None
G/C	Steve Vallos	0	2	Browns
Total		35	125

Ryans is the big prize here and should solidify the linebacking corps.  Not really many other holes to fill.  Maybe this is the year all that talent from last year finally gels?

Cowboys:
The Cowboys lost 11 players to trades, release, or free agency last season:

Pos.	Player	2011 Starts	Value	2012 Team
CB	Terence Newman	14	44	Bengals
LB	Bradie James	13	41	Texans
G/T	Kyle Kosier	16	40	Free Agent
CB	Abram Elam	16	38	Chiefs
LB	Keith Brooking	3	29	Broncos
WR	Laurent Robinson	4	28	Jaguars
TE	Martellus Bennett	7	20	Giants
CB	Alan Ball	2	20	Texans
QB	Jon Kitna	0	16	Retired
RB	Sammy Morris	0	11	Free Agent
CB	Bill Nagy	4	6	Lions
Total		85	302

4-5 legitimate starters here (depending on whether you include Bennett, lost to a division opponent, no less). Some Cowboys fans are probably happy to see Newman go given his pass coverage last year, but he still checks out as the 'Boys' most valuable loss last year.

9 players of value were added to the roster:

Pos.	Player	2011 Starts	Value	2011 Team
QB	Kyle Orton	8	42	Chiefs
CB	Brandon Carr	16	41	Chiefs
LG	Nate Livings	16	33	Bengals
LB	Dan Connor	11	20	Panthers
LG	Mackenzy Bernadeau	1	15	Panthers
OL	Pat McQuistan	0	9	Saints
FB	Lawrence Vickers	1	6	Texans
G	Daniel Loper	0	6	None
WR	Akwasi Owusu-Ansah	2	3	Retired
Total		55	175

The Cowboys made headlines by signing Orton to a 3-year, $10.5 million contract.  Great injury insurance for Tony Romo for sure.  Incidentally, Romo's value using the above metric is only 65, better than Orton's 42, but by one of the smallest margins of any QB-Backup.  It'll be interesting to see how much Romo looks over his shoulder this season.

Giants
Like most defending champs in the salary cap era, the Giants lost some key pieces.  In total, 14 came off the roster, 5 of whom started at least half of last season's games:

Pos.	Player	2011 Starts	Value	2011 Team
RT	Kareem McKenzie	16	47	Free Agent
WR	Mario Manningham	10	35	Niners
RB	Brandon Jacobs	6	31	Niners
DB	Deon Grant	9	29	Free agent
TE	Jake Ballard	13	21	Patriots
CB	Aaron Ross	15	21	Jaguars
OG	Stacy Andrews	3	18	Free Agent
LB	Jonathan Goff	0	16	Free Agent
DE	Dave Tollefson	2	9	Raiders
DB	Derrick Martin	0	6	Patriots
TE	Tony Ugoh	1	6	Retired
WR	Devin Thomas	0	3	Retired
G	Daniel Loper	0	6	None
WR	Akwasi Owusu-Ansah	2	3	Retired
Total		75	247

Giants fans might be hoping for Kareem McKenzie back this season; he was the team's most valuable offseason loss

The Giants let McKenzie go and are currently playing musical chairs with their o-line (more on that below).  Manningham, though valuable, appears to have been the third wheel, and the Giants seem poised to go with a healthy Hakeem Nicks and last year's breakout star, Victor Cruz, at WR.

Pos.	Player	2011 Starts	Value	2011 Team
T	Sean Locklear	4	22	Redskins
TE	Martellus Bennett	7	20	Cowboys
LB	Keith Rivers	0	19	Bengals
DT	Shaun Rogers	4	18	Saints
CB	Dante Hughes	1	3	Chargers
TE	Ryan Purvis	0	2	None
SS	Chris Horton	0	2	None
DB	Stevie Brown	0	2	Colts
Total		16	88

Hey, Sean Locklear!  I remember him!  Was supposed to be the next big thing in 2005 when the Seahawks went to the Super Bowl, then trailed off.  Right.  Locklear seems poised to start somewhere on the Giants' o-line this year.  He's not exactly had a stellar few years, but if he can regain his 2005 form, he should be an adequate fill-in.  And the loquacious Bennett seems about a wash with last year's starting TE, Jake Ballard.

Think we're crazy?  Think we're brilliant?  Tell us in the comments!

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