Week 8 picks

Even with the Majik Man at the helm, Green Bay shouldn't be getting points this week

Another ugly performance last week in my battle royale against Junk Food Guy.  JFG has been keeping score; all I know is I have a lot of ground to make up.

A brief digression -- my weekly picks have stunk, but what about my overall season picks, as noted in my season preview?  Let's have a look:

Division Champs:
AFC North: Steelers (+200 at the time): Pittsburgh is a game back of Baltimore in a tight division race.  I'm not sure Monday night told us anything, but Cincinnati has fallen back a bit.  Pittsburgh plays the Ravens on Sunday night next week and can make up the game difference.  Football Outsiders, though, is skeptical, putting the Steelers' division chances at just 10%.

AFC East: New England (-400): Feeling reasonably good about this one.  The Pats are a game up on Buffalo and own the tiebreak, and FO puts them at 56% to win the division.

AFC South: Indianapolis (-160): FO has the Colts as a whopping 97% to win the division title.

AFC West: Chiefs (+650): Not looking so hot here; just a 5% division title probability

Wild cards: Titans and Jets: Blew this one.  The teams have a 1.4% and 0.5% chance of making the playoffs, respectively.

NFC North: Packers (-160): Tied atop the division with Detroit, and 70% to win their division according to FO.

NFC East: Redskins (+400): 0.8%.

NFC South: Bucs (+700): Man, has this division been bad.  Carolina leads it, and they were atrocious last week.  The 1-5 Bucs are only 2 games back but only have a 1% chance of winning the division.

NFC West: Niners (+220): A game and a half back of Arizona.  16% chance of winning the division.

NFC Wild Card: Seahawks and Bears: If the playoffs started today, both would be out, although FO gives the Seahawks a 60% chance of getting there.  Chicago, 14%.

So as of now, we've hit on 3 of 8 division champs (37.5%).  A monkey would get 25%, so we beat the monkey.

For playoff teams, we're 4 out of 12.  A monkey would get 4.5, so a little off there.

But the good news is that our Super Bowl pick - Packers over Colts -- is alive and well.  FO rates the teams as second-most likely in their conference to reach the Super Bowl (5% chance that both will).

So fear not -- the BQB won't lead you completely astray.  In fact, the Packers are out lock of the week this week, getting 1.5 points in New Orleans.  Yes, Mark Ingram returns for New Orleans, and yes, they're historically very good at home.  But advanced metrics only rate them as the 21st best team in the league, while they have Green Bay 3rd.  On a neutral site, is Green Bay really only a 1.5 point favorite?  With the 3 point home team juice, that's what this line is saying, and I think it's wrong.  Take the Packers.


Thursday Night (not scored)
BRONCOS - 7.5 over Chargers: Denver just playing too well right now to lay single digits at home against basically anyone.

Lions - 3.5 over Falcons (game in London at 9:30 ET): Atlanta a team in disarray.  The long trip across the Atlantic won't help.

Vikings +3 over BUCS: Crazy to see Tampa giving a field goal.

PATRIOTS - 6 over Bears: Chicago another team in disarray.

Rams + 6.5 over CHIEFS: Especially if they just have their punt team out there every play.

PANTHERS +4 over Seahawks: Like a dropping stock market, I'm not buying Seattle until they can right the ship.

Bills + 3 over JETS: See Tampa above.

Dolphins - 5.5 over JAGUARS: I think Miami proves themselves here.

Texans -1 over TITANS: Houston's the better team.

Ravens +1.5 over BENGALS: Baltimore's the better team.  Interestingly, this line opened at 3.

CARDINALS - 2.5 over Eagles: Toughest game on the board in my opinion.  I could see a blowout on either side or a tight game.

Colts - 3 over STEELERS: Don't believe the hype from Pittsburgh's win on Monday night.  They played well for 3 minutes and got outplayed for 57.

BROWNS -7 over Raiders: Until Oakland proves otherwise.

COWBOYS -9 over Redskins: Dallas has been crushing people -- and the spread.  It continues on the road in Washington.

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