Week 7 Picks

It's even more of a lock without this guy managing the clock!

For the record, my locks of the week are a shopping 1-4-1 so far this year.  Take that for what you will (translation: take the opposite and run to your bookie).  I made up a little ground on The Junkfood Guy last week but I'm still well behind for the season.  Time to start being irrational . . .

My lock of the week this week is the winless Oakland Raiders +4 at home vs. Arizona.  This is more of a bet against Arizona than anything; they've looked shaky the past several weeks against Denver and Washington, and their DVOA is actually only 19th out of 32 despite their 4-1 record.  Oakland, on the other hand, is winless but not atrocious -- Football Outsiders has them ranked better than Minnesota, who has 2 wins this season.  Oakland led the whole way against a strong San Diego team -- they'll get it done (or lose by a FG) this week.



As for the rest of the picks:

Thursday night (unscored):
Jets +9.5 over PATRIOTS: Nasty weather in Foxboro leads to a sloppy game played in the trenches, which plays against New England's strengths.

Sunday 1 p.m. games:
BILLS -6.5 over Vikings: No reason to think Vikings will be competitive in this one.  Buffalo doesn't blow teams out but those potent offensive weapons finally put up 30 points.

Titans +5.5 over REDSKINS: Kirk Cousins is 1-7 as a starter.  No reason to think he's winning by more than a FG, even against Tennessee.

RAVENS -7 over Falcons: Baltimore quickly developing into an elite team, and Atlanta shows no reason to be taken on the road.

RAMS +7.5 over Seahawks: A touchdown is too much.  The Rams offense stinks, but it wasn't going to do anything against the Legion of Boom anyway.  Expect a low-scoring game.

JAGS +6 over Browns: For the record, yes, I am taking both winless teams and one of them is my key pick.

Bengals +3.5 over COLTS: AJ Green's status is up in the air here, which makes it tough, but the Colts have exactly one good win this year (against Baltimore) and even that left plenty of doubt.  Cincy is due for a bounceback.

BEARS -3.5 over Dolphins: Deflating loss last week for Miami.

LIONS -3 over Saints: Taking the better team playing at home.

PACKERS -7 over Panthers: Close one.  Cam Newton has been great of late but I'm not sure Carolina can stop Green Bay's offense.

Sunday 4 p.m. games:
Chiefs +4 over CHARGERS: Don't forget what Kansas City did to New England just a few weeks ago.  The Chiefs will be well-rested and almost beat San Francisco two weeks ago as well.

Giants +6.5 over COWBOYS: Classic letdown game for Dallas.

Sunday night:
BRONCOS- 6.5 over Niners: The Broncos are elite, San Francisco's not.  I predict a blow out and a statement game.

Monday night:
STEELERS -3.5 over Texans: The homer in me can't resist.

Enjoy the games.

Twitter.com/TheBackupQB
Facebook.com/BackupQuarterbackBlog