The Jets' Offseason: Keeping the Core Intact

"They call that a brawl!?  I'll show 'em a fight!"

[Continuing our series on each NFL team's offseason moves.  Previous posts can be found here: Rams,  Chiefs, Bucs, Titans, Bears, Browns, Redskins, and Bills.]

With the Jets embroiled in controversy once again -- training camp brawls, cornerbacks with 12 kids by 8 baby-mama's claiming to be the second-best wide receiver on the roster, etc. -- the team that readies itself for the NFL season at camp in Cortland, NY looks strikingly similar to the one that went 8-8 in 2011.  After advancing to 2 straight AFC Championship Games in '09 and '10 and after starting 8-5 in '11 despite a streaky start to the season, the Jets tumbled down the stretch last year, being outscored 93-50 in 3 straight losses.

All the buzz this summer was around the Jets trading for Tim Tebow, but in reality, the Jets mostly stood pat this offseason.  After the jump, a look at who they acquired, lost, and, most importantly, held onto.

As always, "value" here is defined using a modified version of the AV formula of our friends from Pro Football Reference:

Value = 2009 AV + 2 x 2010 AV + 3 x 2011 AV

The Jets lost 10 players with positive value from last year's roster:

	Pos.	Player	2011 Games Started	Value	New Team
1	RB	LaDainian Tomlinson	1	38	Retired
2	SS	Jim Leonhard	13	31	Broncos
3	FS	Brodney Pool	6	24	Cowboys
4	WR	Plaxico Burress	13	15	Free Agent
5	OLB/DE	Jamaal Westerman	3	13	Dolphins
6	TE	Matthew Mulligan	9	8	Rams
7	CB	Marquice Cole	0	8	Patriots
8	DE	Ropati Pitouita	0	7	Chiefs
9	CB	Donald Strickland	1	7	Free Agent
10	SS	Gerald Alexander	0	6	Free Agent
		Total	46	157

The Jets acquired 8 players with positive value from last year's roster:

	Pos.	Player	2011 Games Started	Value	Old Team
1	S	Yeremiah Bell	16	45	Dolphins
2	QB	Tim Tebow	11	30	Broncos
3	S	LaRon Landry	8	23	Redskins
4	OT	Stephen Heyer	2	14	Raiders
5	WR	Chaz Schilens	5	8	Raiders
6	QB	Drew Stanton	0	7	Lions
7	DE	Jay Richardson	0	3	None
8	DB	DeAngelo Smith	0	1	Browns
		Total	42	131

Our observations:

1. By the numbers, the Jets got slightly worse.  157 value points lost, 131 gained, for minus 46.  46 games started lost, 42 gained, for minus 4.

2. The core remains intact.  The Jets' 10 most valuable players from last year return, as to 15 of their top 16 and 18 of their top 20.  The top 20 from last year:

	Pos.	Player	2011 Games Started	Value	2012 Team
1	CB	Darelle Revis	16	98	Jets
2	ILB	David Harris	16	69	Jets
3	NT	Sione Pouha	15	59	Jets
4	C	Nick Mangold	14	57	Jets
T5	OLB/DE	Calvin Pace	16	55	Jets
T5	ILB	Bart Scott	15	55	Jets
7	T	D’Brickashaw Ferguson	16	54	Jets
8	QB	Mark Sanchez	16	51	Jets
9	TE	Dustin Keller	13	44	Jets
10	DE	Mike DeVito	11	39	Jets
T11	RB	LaDainian Tomlinson	1	38	Retired
T11	WR	Santonio Holmes	16	38	Jets
13	RB	Shonn Greene	15	37	Jets
14	G	Brandon Moore	16	33	Jets
15	OLB/DE	Bryan Thomas	3	32	Jets
16	SS	Jim Leonhard	13	31	Broncos
T17	G	Matt Slauson	16	30	Jets
T17	DE	Muhammad Wilkerson	16	30	Jets
19	FS	Brodney Pool	6	24	Cowboys
20	T	Wayne Hunter	16	20	Jets

Only one other team we've covered (the Bears) kept their core intact to the same degree.

3. Yeremiah Bell and LaRon Landry, if healthy, should improve an already-strong defense.  The Jets' issues were on the offensive side of the ball last year; Football Outsiders had them 2nd in defense, 4th in special teams, but 21st on offense.  Bell and Landry should more than offset the losses of Leonhard and Pool at the safety position.  Bell was cut by the division-rival Dolphins for cap reasons.  Bell will be 34 this season, but has shown no signs of slowing down -- his AV has improved every year he's been healthy.

Yeremiah Bell will see his former team twice this year.

4. The cupboard really is that bare at wide receiver.  Maybe Mr. Cromartie is right.  After Santonio Holmes, it really does start to drop off for the Jets' receivers.  Jeremy Kerley is next on the AV chart with 9 after 29 catches, 314 yards, and 1 TD in 12 games last year, but he's nursing a hamstring injury.  Chaz Schilens clocks in at 8.  The big story seems to be 2nd-round draft pick Stephen Hill, who has been lighting up camp and may start the Jets' preseason opener.  Translation: the running game better be good.  Thankfully, the Jets have 100% continuity on the offensive line -- all five starters return, and all but center Nick Mangold started every game last year (Mangold missed 2 due to injury).  This can mean only good things for new OC Tony Sparano -- both from a run-blocking and a pass-protection perspective.

5. Mark Sanchez checks out better than he gets credit for.  The mercurial relationship between Jets fans and their starting QB will only worsen the moment Tim Tebow converts a 3rd-and-1 out of the Wildcat.  But the reality is that Sanchez has been an average starting QB in the NFL -- no worse.  Our upcoming post assessing Ron Jaworski's QB rankings will show that Jaws significantly underrates Sanchez.  In 2011, his AV was a 9, equal to Matt Schaub's, a QB many think is on the verge of the elite QBs in the NFL.  Sanchez will need to improve for the Jets to take the next step -- or the Jets will have to strengthen the QB position via Tim Tebow getting 15 snaps a game or more.  But let's not liken Sanchez to, say, JaMarcus Russell (check out his 2009 season -- a QB rating of 50 and a negative AV rating!).

All in all, the Jets look a lot like the team that went 8-8 last year . . . and a lot like the team that went to the AFCCG 2 years in a row.  Will continuity shoot them to the top of the division, or will familiarity harm the team's chemistry (as evidenced by this week's brawl)?  Intangibles may be the key for New York this season, as the players on the field will be largely the same.

Think we're crazy?  Think we're brilliant?  Tell us in the comments!

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