How the Browns Blew the Draft

The Dawg Pound has reason to be melancholy after this weekend's draft

Yesterday, we graded each team, 1 through 32, on its draft this past weekend.  The Bengals came out #1, but the other Ohio team, the Cleveland Browns, fared much worse.  The Browns came in at #29 of #32, and did so in somewhat spectacular fashion.  After the jump, we count the ways the Browns screwed up this weekend, with special appearances from Vince Vaughn and Scott Bakula . . .

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#1 They took a RB and a QB in the first round.


It's often noted that running backs are fungible in the NFL (undrafted Willie Parker comes to mind), and last week, we explained how RB and QB are the two positions with the least likelihood of success in the first round.  The Browns hit the proverbial jackpot and got both.

Not only that, but despite Mike Holmgren's assertions to the contrary, some are claiming that the Browns were duped into giving Minnesota three draft picks to move up one spot to grab Richardson.  This, after every mock draft we saw had Matt Kalil going to the Vikings and Trent Richardson to the Browns.  That's exactly what happened, and there's reason to believe it would have happened without Cleveland giving up three picks in the draft.  Has Holmgren been reading some Shel Silverstein?

Browns fans had better hope that Trent Richardson is "all growns up."

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#2 Their QB of the future is already 28.


Seriously, who invited Paul Blake to the draft?

If they throw in Sinbad, I might like the Weeden pick.

While there was a bit of speculation the Browns might go after Ryan Tannehill, they eventually settled on Blak -- er, Brandon Weeden -- at 22.  At 28, Weeden, a former minor league baseball player, was the fourth QB taken in the first round and is the oldest player taken in the first round of the draft.  Ever.  So there's not a whole lot of precedent for what the Browns did here.  Having said that, we'll try to size it up as best we can.

Let's start with the idea that Weeden was the fourth QB taken in the first round.  That's not too common, usually because there aren't 4 QBs that are first-round worthy.  (Weeden's STATS, Inc. score was an 86, meaning the Browns very likely could have gotten him in the second round.)  In fact, it's only happened 5 times since 1999 and 9 times since the merger:

Fourth QBs or Later Taken in the First Round Since the Merger

	Year	Overall	# QBs Taken Before in the Draft	Player	Pro Football Reference Weighted Career AV
1	‘83	27	5	Dan Marino	145
2	‘99	11	3	Daunte Culpepper	86
3	‘87	26	3	Jim Harbaugh	78
4	‘83	24	4	Ken O’Brien	72
5	‘83	15	3	Tony Eason	36
6	‘03	22	3	Rex Grossman	23
7	‘04	22	3	JP Losman	19
8	‘99	12	3	Cade McNown	7
9	‘11	12	3	Christian Ponder	5

(If you're new to Weighted Career AV, suffice to say if you're below 25, you're not very good.)

So your middle case here is Tony Eason (*Pats fans shaking their heads grimly*), and if you look only at '99 and after, which is reasonable given how far scouting has come since the '80's, it's closer to JP Losman (*gulp*).  And dare I even point out that Grossman and Losman were both selected 22nd, the same pick as Weeden?

(Of course, Weeden could be the next Marino, too.  That's the beauty of the draft -- no one really knows.)

If you look at the 10 QBs since 2000 who were 24 or older when they were drafted, well, it still looks grim for the Browns:


QBs 24 or Older When Drafted Since 1998

	Year	Round	Overall	Age at Draft	Player	Pro Football Reference Weighted Career AV
1	‘02	4	108	24	David Garrard	61
2	‘01	4	106	28	Chris Weinke	9
3	‘07	2	40	25	John Beck	4
4	‘04	7	225	25	Matt Mauck	1
5	‘02	4	117	24	Rohan Davey	0
6	‘08	6	186	24	Colt Brennan	0
7	‘08	6	198	24	Andre Woodson	0
8	‘09	6	174	24	Tom Brandstater	0
9	‘10	6	204	24	Tony Pike	0
10	‘10	7	239	24	Sean Canfield	0

Ugh.  Your best case here is David Garrard.  Chris Weinke, who was three months older than Weeden when drafted, is probably the most comparable case.  Weinke finished his career 2-18 as a starter and started only 5 games after his rookie season.

If you assume that Weeden is, indeed, the fourth-best QB in the draft and compare him to the fourth-best QBs in past drafts, it still doesn't get any better.

Fourth-Best QBs from Each Draft By PFR Weighted Career AV

	Year	Round	Overall	Player	Pro Football Reference Weighted Career AV
1	‘04	3	90	Matt Schaub	57
2	‘05	4	106	Kyle Orton	34
3	‘98	2	60	Charlie Batch	32
4	‘99	1	1	Tim Couch	30
5	‘03	1	19	Kyle Boller	18
6	‘02	3	83	Josh McCown	17
7	‘01	4	109	Sage Rosenfels	13
8	‘06	1	10	Matt Leinart	12
9	‘00	7	212	Tim Rattay	12
10	‘07	1	1	JaMarcus Russell	7
11	‘10	5	155	John Skelton	6
12	‘11	1	10	Blaine Gabbert	4
13	‘08	5	160	Josh Johnson	4
14	‘09	4	101	Stephen McGee	2

Middle case here is somewhere in the Josh McDown, Sage Rosenfels, Matt Leinart, and Tim Rattay range.  Good luck. Brandon.


#3 They have no idea what to do with Colt McCoy.

What I'm-a do now!?!?!?

First, Mike Holmgren and the Browns tried to trade up to the second pick to get Robert Griffin III.  They failed.

Next, Browns coach Pat Shurmur said the Browns were "moving forward with Colt" and was looking forward to the Texas product "being our guy."

Then, the Browns drafted Weeden in the first round.

Now, if you Google "McCoy trade," you get conflicting stories.

In all seriousness, how do the Browns expect McCoy to come back and be an effective player with them after putting him through this kind of a ringer?

(Did I mention that McCoy, at 24, is 4 years younger than Weeden?)

#4 The rest of their draft looks like a disaster too.


The Browns didn't exactly inspire confidence with the rest of their picks (see yesterday's post for weighted value methodology):

Round	Pick (overall)	Player	STATS Grade	Expected Grade	Relative Value	Multiplier	Weighted Value
1	3	T Richardson, RB	97	97	0	4.1	0.0
1	22	B Weeden, QB	86	91	-5	4.1	-20.5
2	37	M Schwartz, OT	81	88	-7	2.8	-19.6
3	87	J Hughes, DT	35	72	-37	2.0	-74.0
4	100	T Benjamin, WR	52	69	-17	1.4	-23.8
4	120	J Johnson, LB	65	42	1	1.4	1.4
5	160	R Miller, OG	42	52	-10	1.0	10.0
6	204	E Acho, ILB	41	32	9	0.7	6.3
6	205	B Winn, DT	70	32	38	0.7	26.6
7	245	T Wade, DB	59	30	29	0.4	11.6
7	247	B Smelley, TE	30	30	0	0.4	0
		TOTAL					-102.0

First, there's a pretty good chance Weeden would still be available at 37, and at 22, Riley Reiff, and OT most had going in the top 10 and a 93 according to STATS, was still available.  (The Lions snatched him up with the next pick.)

Even after Richardson and Weeden, the Browns got poor value with their next three picks, highlighted by John Hughes (DT, Cincinnati), who, at a weighted value of -74, was our fourth-worst pick in the draft entire draft.  Coupled with Schwartz and Benjamin, and despite some decent value in the very late rounds, this draft might set Cleveland back a few years.

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