Draft Preview: The Ryan Tannehill Factor and Why Jacksonville Should Think Hard About Trading Down

Welcome to the inaugural post of The Backup Quarterback Blog.  This site’s mission is to provide NFL analysis from the perspective of the objective NFL fan.  Our first topic?  The NFL Draft, which starts Thursday night and runs through Saturday.  ESPN is already hyping its coverage ad nauseam, with Cee Lo Green’s “Bright Lights Big City” evidently playing the role of “song ESPN will beat to death."  Here’s hoping Cee Lo shows up at Radio City Music Hall to meet Roger Goodell in his Super Bowl outfit.

After the jump:

• A look at 7 mock drafts and how everyone's afraid to be different
• The Ryan Tannehill phenomenon, who might trade up for him and with whom
• The historic nature of QBs in this draft

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First, a disclaimer: I typically watch no more than 10 hours of college football per season, so I won’t pretend to have much intelligent to say about how these players will project to the NFL.  This post is more about teams, their needs, relative value, and the game theory behind the picks.

Second, the draft is long (253 picks over 7 rounds).  The level of confidence for most mock drafters falls off significantly as you move further out.  So, for our purposes, we’re only going to consider the first 11 picks of the first round.  So, barring a trade, you’re looking at teams who stunk last year.

Some Mock Drafts to Set the Stage

To start things off, I had a look at 7 mock drafts (click on a name to see their draft):

·         Renowned draftniks Mel Kiper, Jr. and Todd McShay from ESPN.com (full mocks require ESPN Insider)

·         Peter King from Sports Illustrated and NBC Sports

·         Rob Rang from CBSSports.com

·         Evan Silva from ProFootballTalk.com

·         Charley Casserly from NFL Network (formerly GM of the Texans and Redskins)

·         Some dude named Kash Money from MockingTheDraft.com

Mock Drafts as of April 23, 2012

		Kiper	McShay	King	Rang	Silva	Casserly	Kash Money
1	Colts	Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford	Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford	Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford	Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford	Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford	Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford	Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
2	Redskins	Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor	Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor	Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor	Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor	Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor	Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor	Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
3	Vikings	Matt Kalil, OT, USC	Matt Kalil, OT, USC	Matt Kalil, OT, USC	Matt Kalil, OT, USC	Matt Kalil, OT, USC	Matt Kalil, OT, USC	Matt Kalil, OT, USC
4	Browns	T Richardson, RB, Alabama	T Richardson, RB, Alabama	T Richardson, RB, Alabama	T Richardson, RB, Alabama	T Richardson, RB, Alabama	T Richardson, RB, Alabama	T Richardson, RB, Alabama
5	Bucs	M Claiborne, CB, LSU	M Claiborne, CB, LSU	M Claiborne, CB, LSU	M Claiborne, CB, LSU	M Claiborne, CB, LSU	M Claiborne, CB, LSU	M Claiborne, CB, LSU
6	Rams	J Blackmon, WR, Okla St.	J Blackmon, WR, Okla St.	J Blackmon, WR, Okla St.	Fletcher Cox, DT, Miss. St.	Fletcher Cox, DT, Miss. St.	J Blackmon, WR, Okla St.	J Blackmon, WR, Okla St.
7	Jaguars	M Ingram, DE, S. Carolina	M Ingram, DE, S. Carolina	S Gilmore, CB, S. Carolina	S Gilmore, CB, S. Carolina	J Blackmon, WR, Okla St.	M Ingram, DE, S. Carolina	M Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
8	Dolphins	R  Tannehill, QB, Tex A&M	R  Tannehill, QB, Tex A&M	R  Tannehill, QB, Tex A&M	R  Tannehill, QB, Tex A&M	R  Tannehill, QB, Tex A&M	R Tannehill, QB, Tex A&M	R  Tannehill, QB, Tex A&M
9	Panthers	Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis	Fletcher Cox, DT, Miss. St.	Fletcher Cox, DT, Miss. St.	J Blackmon, WR, Okla St.	S Gilmore, CB, S. Carolina	Fletcher Cox, DT, Miss. St.	Fletcher Cox, DT, Miss. St.
10	Bills	Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa	Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa	M Floyd, WR, Notre Dame	L Kuechly, ILB, Boston Coll.	D Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama	Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa	Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
11	Chiefs	L Kuechly, ILB, Boston Coll.	L Kuechly, ILB, Boston Coll.	L Kuechly, ILB, Boston Coll.	D DeCastro, G, Stanford	L Kuechly, LB, Boston Coll.	L Kuechly, ILB, Boston Coll.	M Ingram, DE, S. Carolina

No one’s exactly going out on a limb here.  The first 5 picks are identical for all 7 mocks, and a total of 17 players are on the board above.   Also, McShay and Casserly have an identical top 11 – not sure who stole picks from whom.   These guys remind me of stock analysts – everyone’s afraid to be wrong, so everyone joins the consensus.  We'll grade the mock drafts in a post following the draft.

Tannehill: A Dolphin Unless Somebody Trades Up

With the first 2 picks all but locked (the Colts have informed Andrew Luck that they’re taking him, the Redskins mortgaged the house to move up 4 slots to take Robert Griffin III) the intriguing part of the draft starts with Minnesota at #3.  Some sources say the Vikings are enamored with Kalil at 3, others say they're dying to make a trade.  Enter Ryan Tannehill, the Texas A&M QB who’s shooting up the charts after his insane pro day a few weeks ago.  Right now, every mock draft has him going 8th to the Dolphins, but someone leapfrogging the Dolphins to get him isn't out of the question.

Among the teams picking 3-11, the pundits seem to think only three legitimately need a QB:

Teams with Picks 3-7, Current QBs, and Key Facts / Stats

		QB	Acquired	Age	2011 ESPN Total QBR Rank (of 33 starters)	2011 Football Outsiders DVOA (of 47 QBs)
3	Vikings	Christian Ponder	11th overall, 2011	24	#27	#43
4	Browns	Colt McCoy	85th overall, 2010	25	#24	#31
5	Bucs	Josh Freeman	17th overall, 2009	24	#22	#29
6	Rams	Sam Bradford	1st overall, 2010	24	#30	#38
7	Jaguars	Blaine Gabbert	10th overall, 2010	22	#33	#46
8	Dolphins	Matt Moore	Free agency, 2011	27	#17	#26
9	Panthers	Cam Newton	1st overall, 2011	22	#16	#16
10	Bills	Ryan Fitzpatrick	Free agency, 2009	29	#18	#25
11	Chiefs	Matt Cassel	Trade with New England	29	#19	#39
	?	Ryan Tannehill	?	23	?

Despite tough seasons last year, Ponder, Freeman, Bradford, and Gabbert get a free pass due to their youth and the investment of high draft picks in each (although Gabbert’s season was the 3^rd worst of the past 4 years according to QBR), and Newton, last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year, appears to be the guy in Carolina.  The Bills extended Ryan Fitzpatrick’s contract -- to the tune of 6 years, $59 MM  -- last October.  That leaves 3 teams:

·         Cleveland (#4), who, after thinking Robert Griffin III might fall to them, have gone out of their way to publicly state that Colt McCoy is their QB

·         Miami (#8), who just hired Tannehill’s college coach (Mike Sherman) as its offensive coordinator and whose owner, according to National Football Post, is pushing hard for Miami to take the Texas A&M QB

·         Kansas City (#11), who put up an AFC-low 13.3 points per game last year

Again, the consensus seems to be the Dolphins will snatch up Tannehill if he's there.  That means that if you’re holding picks 3 through 7, you might be getting some trade offers from QB hungry teams outside the top 11.  Who’s on the other end of the phone?  You could see either Kansas City or Miami try a pre-emptive strike, or you could see a wild card:

Teams Who Could Conceivably Trade Up for Tannehill

Pick	Team	QB	Acquired	Age	2011 ESPN Total QBR Rank (of 33 starters)	2011 Football Outsiders DVOA (of 47 QBs)
12	Seahawks	Tarvaris Jackson / Matt Flynn	Free agency / Free agency	29/26	#26 / N/A	#23 / N/A
13	Cardinals	Kevin Kolb	Trade with Philadelphia	27	#28	#34

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Remember, all three of these teams were at least tangentially involved in the Peyton Manning Sweepstakes a month ago.  Is Seattle -- a team with a lot of pieces in place aside from its QB -- really ready to gamble on Tarvaris Jackson or Matt Flynn?  Have the Cards seen enough out of Kevin Kolb?

(Other teams omitted from this list: Tennessee, who, despite playing aging Matt Hasselbeck at QB, seems happy with Jake Locker as a backup, Oakland, who has too much invested in Carson Palmer, and Philly who has their guy in Michael Vick.  Right?)

If I'm the Jaguars and the Phone Rings, I Pick Up
With a lot of pundits calling this a “five player draft” (Luck-Griffin-Kalil-Richardson-Clairborne), the fun seems to start with the Rams.  Both St. Louis at #6, who already traded down once this draft, and Jacksonville at #7, with no consensus pick and plenty of needs, might look long and hard at moving down.  Especially if the suitors are Seattle or Arizona, just a handful of picks later.  Jacksonville looks particularly interesting here.  In fact, aside from Blackmon (who’s likely to go at 6), their other potential picks at 7 may in fact still be available at 12 or 13.  Consider:

Potential Jaguars First-Round Selections and Where They Went in Mock Drafts

	Player	Kiper	McShay	King	Rang	Silva	Casserly	Kash Money	Average, if not to JAX
1	S Gilmore, CB, S. Carolina	21 (to CIN)	19 (to CHI)	7 (to JAX)	7 (to JAX)	9 (to CAR)	20 (to TEN)	19 (to CHI)	18
2	M Floyd, WR, Notre Dame	13 (to ARI)	13 (to ARI)	10 (to BUF)	17 (to CIN)	17 (to CIN)	17 (to CIN)	7 (to JAX)	15
3	M Ingram, DE, S. Carolina	7 (to JAX)	7 (to JAX)	12 (to SEA)	12 (to SEA)	16 (to NYJ)	7 (to JAX)	11 (to KC)	13
4	J Blackmon, WR, Okla St.	6 (to STL)	6 (to STL)	6 (to STL)	9 (to CAR)	7 (to JAX)	6 (to STL)	6 (to STL)	7

So if you’re Jacksonville, and you decide your guy is Gilmore or Floyd, it seems likely that you can trade down to 12 or 13, get something else in the trade, and still get your guy at 12 or 13.  If they want Ingram, it’s a little more iffy, and it seems they’re only getting Blackmon if he falls to them.  Say they're equally happy with Gilmore, Floyd, and Ingram.  Every mock but one says at least one will be available at 13.


This is obviously no more than speculation -- after all, the Seahawks spent big money on Matt Flynn in free agency, the Kevin Kolb experiment just started for the Cards, and the Titans would probably have to spend a lot to move all the way from 20 to 7.  But if you're Jacksonville, I'm listening when the phone rings, and the price tag to move up might not be that high.

An Historic Draft for QBs

If Tannehill goes off the board 8^th or higher as expected, it’ll be only the third time ever that three QBs were taken in the first 8 picks.  In the other 2, QBs went 1-2-3:

·         1991: #1: Tim Couch (Browns), #2: Donovan McNabb (Eagles), #3: Akili Smith (Bengals)

·         1971: #1: Jim Plunkett (Patriots), #2: Archie Manning (Saints), #3: Dan Pastorini (Oilers)

So it would be about a 1-in-20-years event.  It's notable that only 1 of those six above (Plunkett) ever won a Super Bowl.  And that somebody thought Akili Smith was worth the #3 pick.

Many of you might ask about the famed QB classes of 2004 and 1983.  QBs went early and often in those rounds, but not 3 in the top 8.  The top 3 in those drafts:

·         2004: #1: Eli Manning (Chargers), #4: Philip Rivers (Giants), #11: Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers)

·         1983: #1: John Elway (Colts), #7: Todd Blackledge (Kansas City), #14: Jim Kelly (Buffalo)

Those guys did a little better, with a total of 6 QB wins (2 each for Manning, Roethlisberger, and Elway) and another 8 appearances (4 for Kelly, 3 for Elway, 1 for Roethlisberger).

And no matter what happens, we’ll be comparing Luck and Griffin to other QBs to go 1-2 in drafts (in addition to ’91 and ’71 above):

·         1998: #1: Peyton Manning (Colts), #2 Ryan Leaf (Chargers)

·         1993: #1: Drew Bledsoe (Patriots), #2 Rick Mirer (Seahawks)

1 SB win (Manning) and 2 more appearances (one each for Manning and Bledsoe in that bunch).  As for Leaf, well, he's had a little rougher go of it of late.

Enjoy the draft.  We'll be back with a recap next week.

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