Andrew Luck: The Next Peyton Manning or The Next Jeff George (or worse?)

Even Sports Illustrated knew the Colts were taking a big risk in drafting Jeff George.

It's amazing how a few days can change everything.  Our last post on Monday night predicted that teams 3-7 could all receive interest from teams looking to trade up for Ryan Tannehill.  Barely 36 hours later, and barely 30 hours before the draft, Minnesota GM Rick Spielman has indicated that trade talks have "really heated up" for the Vikings' pick at #3.  Some are saying it's the Dolphins for trying to trade for Tannehill, others are saying it's a team trying to get Trent Richardson (The Rams at 6?  The Bucs at 5?), which would, in turn, cause the Browns (at 4) to look hard at trading down and break their fans hearts for the second time this offseason (first RG3, now Richardson) all at the same time.

For the rest of this post, we'll stick to sure things, namely that Andrew Luck will be the Colts' pick at #1 overall.  The Colts think he's a sure thing and are so sure of it that they cut ties with Peyton Manning.

After the jump, a look at the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Colts and Andrew Luck.

NFL Network Online: The NFL Is Always On, Don't Miss A Moment - 7 Day Free Trial.

In the 42 drafts since the merger, a quarterback has gone #1 overall 19 times, more than any other position.  Recent history has seen this happen even more often; each of the past 3 years and 4 of the past 5, a QB has gone #1.

We'll use the "performance points" system put forth by Bill Barnwell in his column yesterday:

• 1 point for a game started
• 0.5 points for a game played but not started
• 10 points for a Pro Bowl
• 10 more points for 1st-team All-Pro

We're also adding another 10 points for a Super Bowl win, which is all the more important with a quarterback given that he's the face of the franchise.

For now, we'll put the top picks from the last three years (Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, and Matthew Stafford) in the "too early to tell" bucket, leaving us 16 QBs to rate:

16 QBs Taken #1 Overall, 1970-2008, Ranked by Performance Points (active players in yellow)

Rank	Year	Player	Games Started	Games Subbed	Pro Bowls	1st Team All-Pro	Super Bowl Wins	Seasons	Total Points	Points Per Season
1	98	P. Manning	208	0	11	5	1	14	378	27
2	83	J. Elway	231	3	9	1	2	16	353	22
3	89	T. Aikman	165	0	6	1	3	12	265	22
4	93	D. Bledsoe	193	1	4	0	1	14	244	17
5	87	V Testaverde	214	19	2	0	0	21	244	12
6	70	T. Bradshaw	158	10	3	1	4	14	243	17
7	71	J. Plunkett	144	13	0	0	2	15	171	11
8	04	E. Manning	119	2	2	0	2	8	160	20
9	75	S. Bartkowski	127	2	2	0	0	12	148	12
10	01	M. Vick	92	19	4	0	0	9	142	16
11	90	J. George	124	7	0	0	0	12	128	11
12	03	C. Palmer	106	1	2	0	0	8	127	16
13	02	D. Carr	79	13	0	0	0	8	86	11
14	05	A Smith	66	4	0	0	0	6	68	11
15	99	T. Couch	59	3	0	0	0	5	61	12
16	07	J. Russell	25	6	0	0	0	3	28	9
Average			131.9	6.4	2.8	0.5	0.9	11.1	177.6	15.4

Preseason Live: Get live streaming of NFL Preseason games...Limited Time! 

So if you're a Colts fan, your best case scenario for the man tabbed to replace Peyton Manning is, well, Peyton Manning.  Your worst case?  JaMarcus Russell!  Your most likely?  Probably somewhere in the middle third of the table above from, say, from #6 to #11.  1 Hall of Famer (Bradshaw), 3 multiple Super Bowl winners (Bradshaw, Plunkett, and Manning), and one Jeff George (remember him, Colts fans?) in that bunch.

Maybe the scariest stat for Colts fans?  Only 7 of the QBs above -- less than half -- ever won a Super Bowl, and one of them (Bledsoe) didn't play in it (although, to be fair, the Pats don't beat Pittsburgh in the '01 AFC Title game without Bledsoe).

(Sidenote: Did you realize Vinny Testaverde played for 21 seasons!?)

Vinny, the #1 overall pick 25 years ago, on the cover of Sports Illustrated

Enjoy the frenzied run-up to the draft . . .

Like me on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/backupquarterbackblog