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| Cam Newton's Panthers have as many wins as he has fingers up, but that's likely to change in the second half of the season |
Our new
layout and avatar lasted all of a week. Last
week, we looked at the best- and worst-case scenarios for newly-appointed
Chiefs starting QB Brady Quinn, whose picture adorned the side of this blog
and served as our Twitter avatar. Quinn’s
line in his start against Oakland? 2-for-4
for 1 yard, 1 interception, and 1 head injury. Yikes.
Matt Cassel returns to the starting lineup tonight, and Brady Quinn returns
to the top of the webpage (albeit with a friend whose wardrobe we detailed here).
As we hit
the midpoint of the 2012 NFL season, we look at teams who have deviated
significantly from their early season performance. More than a few have started out either hot
or cold and currently resemble a far different team than they did in weeks
1-3. A deeper dive after the jump.
Our metric
here is Pythagorean Expectation, which is just points scored vs. points allowed
with some funky math. We’re looking at 2
periods of time – a team’s last 4 games and the rest of their season (so,
depending on the team, their first 3 or 4 games). And the metric below is their expected win
total, or the number of games you’d expect them to win in a season based on
their performance in the period, between 0 and 16.
Below, all
32 teams ranked from most improved to least improved:
Rk
|
Team
|
Last 4 Games
|
Start of Season
|
Difference
|
1
|
Broncos
|
11.9
|
8.0
|
+3.9
|
2
|
Bucs
|
10.8
|
7.1
|
+3.7
|
3
|
Dolphins
|
10.7
|
7.9
|
+2.8
|
4
|
Titans
|
5.9
|
3.6
|
+2.3
|
5
|
Bears
|
13.3
|
11.0
|
+2.3
|
6
|
Packers
|
10.5
|
8.4
|
+2.1
|
7
|
Panthers
|
6.8
|
4.8
|
+2.0
|
8
|
Jets
|
7.6
|
5.7
|
+1.9
|
9
|
Steelers
|
10.1
|
8.2
|
+1.9
|
10
|
Niners
|
13.3
|
11.5
|
+1.8
|
11
|
Browns
|
7.3
|
5.7
|
+1.6
|
12
|
Giants
|
11.5
|
10.2
|
+1.3
|
13
|
Colts
|
6.7
|
5.6
|
+1.1
|
14
|
Saints
|
7.5
|
6.4
|
+1.1
|
15
|
Bengals
|
6.6
|
7.6
|
+1.1
|
16
|
Eagles
|
6.4
|
5.4
|
+1.1
|
17
|
Raiders
|
6.1
|
5.2
|
+0.9
|
18
|
Patriots
|
11.7
|
10.9
|
+0.8
|
19
|
Lions
|
7.4
|
7.4
|
+0.0
|
20
|
Cowboys
|
6.9
|
6.6
|
-0.3
|
21
|
Redskins
|
8.0
|
6.9
|
-1.1
|
22
|
Chargers
|
9.7
|
7.8
|
-1.8
|
23
|
Vikings
|
9.8
|
7.9
|
-1.8
|
24
|
Texans
|
13.0
|
11.0
|
-2.0
|
25
|
Seahawks
|
9.5
|
7.3
|
-2.1
|
26
|
Chiefs
|
5.1
|
2.9
|
-2.2
|
27
|
Rams
|
6.9
|
4.3
|
-2.5
|
28
|
Falcons
|
12.7
|
10.1
|
-2.6
|
29
|
Jaguars
|
5.7
|
2.5
|
-3.2
|
30
|
Ravens
|
10.9
|
6.3
|
-4.6
|
31
|
Bills
|
8.8
|
3.9
|
-4.9
|
32
|
Cardinals
|
11.0
|
2.6
|
-8.4
|
In some
cases, the differences are obvious, and have been reflected in results. The extreme example is the Cardinals, who
opened the season 4-0 and have dropped their last 4 (although it’s funny to
think about it as them going from an 11-win team to a 3-win team at the drop of
a hat). But in a few cases, records
haven’t followed the rankings above. For
example:
·
The
Ravens: Baltimore has gone 3-1 in its last 4 vs. 2-1 in its first 3. Keep in mind – we’re judging this solely on
point differential (and not on, for example, injuries, and the Ravens have
suffered plenty). But the reality is
that Baltimore’s 3 wins in that stretch were all one-score games (23-16 over
Cleveland, 9-6 over Kansas City, 31-29 over Dallas), and don’t come close to making
up for their 43-13 shellacking at the hands of Houston. The past 4 games, the Ravens have looked like
a 6-10 team despite going 3-1.
·
The
Panthers: Carolina lost every one of its past 4 games – how can it be the 7th
most-improved team over that span?
Hanging tight in every game, that’s how.
Their last 4 results (all losses): 30-28 at Atlanta, 16-12 vs. Seattle,
19-14 vs. Dallas, 23-22 at Chicago. They’ve
not only hung in every game, they’ve been poised to win them (especially last
week). With only 2 games left against
teams with winning records (both at home: Week 10 vs. Denver and Week 14 vs.
Atlanta), Carolina could easily finish with 6 wins or more despite starting
1-6, potentially starting this week at Washington (Cam Newton vs. RG3!!!).
·
The Jets:
Save for last week’s 30-9 loss to Miami, the Jets had as good a 1-3
second-quarter of a season as a team could have. They lost by 6 to Houston, by 3 to the Pats
in overtime and beat a suddenly-spritely Colts team 35-9. We’re no longer saying they’re a Super Bowl
contender, but they looked like a .500 football team this quarter, vs. the
start of the season, when they were outscored 109-81. Potentially cause for optimism in an AFC East
that, despite public perception on the Patriots, no one has run away with
(yet).
Going
forward, we’ll be rating a team’s past 4 games double in our Pythagorean expectations,
which we use both in projecting the playoffs and in the week 9 picks.
AFC PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS
Seed
|
This
Week
|
Last
Week
|
Start
of Season
|
If
Playoffs Started Today
|
1
|
Texans (11.1 wins)
|
Texans (10.9)
|
Jets (10.9)
|
Texans (6-1)
|
2
|
Ravens (9.9)
|
Ravens (10.1)
|
Steelers (10.5)
|
Ravens (5-2)
|
3
|
Patriots (9.8)
|
Patriots (8.9)
|
Chargers (9.3)
|
Patriots (5-3)
|
4
|
Broncos (8.9)
|
Chargers (8.8)
|
Titans (8.3)
|
Broncos (4-3)
|
5
|
Steelers (9.6)
|
Steelers (8.9)
|
Ravens (10.2)
|
Dolphins (4-3)
|
6
|
Dolphins (8.6)
|
Broncos (8.0)
|
Bengals (10.0)
|
Colts (4-3)
|
NFC PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS
Seed
|
This
Week
|
Last
Week
|
Start
of Season
|
If
Playoffs Started Today
|
1
|
Bears (13.0)
|
Bears (12.9)
|
Niners (14.3)
|
Falcons (7-0)
|
2
|
Niners (13.0)
|
Falcons (12.6)
|
Saints (14.0)
|
Bears (6-1)
|
3
|
Falcons (13.0)
|
Niners (12.6)
|
Packers (12.3)
|
Giants (6-2)
|
4
|
Giants (10.5)
|
Giants (10.0)
|
Eagles (9.3)
|
Niners (6-2)
|
5
|
Packers (10.4)
|
Packers (10.0)
|
Bears (11.6)
|
Vikings (5-3)
|
6
|
Bucs (8.1)
|
Cardinals (9.4)
|
Cardinals (10.6)
|
Packers (5-3)
|
(For those
scoring at home, we’re using Pythagorean ratings – weighted as we discussed
above – for 55% of our ratings, with preseason ratings accounting for 45%.)
In the AFC,
things are shaping up pretty much according to what most pundits think will
happen. The only difference is that the
Colts aren’t getting much love from our model; at 4-3, they’d be in the field
if the playoffs started today. We’ve
only got them down for 6.6 wins (meaning they’ll finish 2-7 or 3-6). Right now, that 35-9 loss to the Jets is
really wrecking their chances in our model.
That will be weighted less significantly in 2 weeks, so the Colts’
chances might improve then.
In the NFC,
the world is basically separated into three tiers:
·
Top tier:
Bears, Niners, Falcons: We’re projecting exactly 13 wins for all 3, despite
the fact that the Falcons are undefeated and the Bears and Niners have 1 and 2
losses, respectively. How these teams
shake out is obviously key because only 2 of them can get a first-round bye
·
Solidly
in: Giants, Packers: At the moment, we don’t expect anyone else in the NFC
East to crack .500, so the Giants look like a sure bet there, and the Packers,
though a ways behind Chicago, are 2+ games in front of any other potential wild
card teams.
·
A gaggle
of teams fighting for the last wild card: Right now, we’ve got the Bucs at
8.1 wins, but our model has no less than six
teams within a half a win of Tampa: Seattle (8.0), Minnesota (7.9), New Orleans
(7.9), Arizona (7.9), Philadelphia (7.8), and Detroit (7.6). We’ve talked at length about the NFC’s
strength, but our latest model has it concentrated at the top; and where 10-6
might not have gotten you in the field a few weeks ago, if any of these teams
can get to 9-7, they might be a lock . . . to have a first round game on the
road against a 13-win team
 |
| "Us? In the playoffs?" |
WEEK 9 PICKS
Worst week
of the season last week. Didn’t help
that Dallas, Tennessee, Detroit, and San Diego all blew very winnable games
and/or covers.
LAST WEEK: 5-9 against the spread, 7-7
outright
SEASON: 59-55-5 against the spread
(.518), 72-47 outright (.605)
(picks in order of confidence against the
spread, outright winner in parentheses)
BENGALS +3.5
over Broncos (Bengals)
Cardinals
+11 over PACKERS (Packers)
Bills +10.5
over TEXANS (Texans)
FALCONS -4
over Cowboys (Falcons)
Bucs +1.5
over RAIDERS (Bucs)
SAINTS -3
over Eagles (Saints)
CHARGERS
-9.5 over Chiefs (Chargers)
Panthers +3
over REDSKINS (Redskins)
Steelers +3
over GIANTS (Giants)
Bears -3.5
over TITANS (Bears)
JAGUARS +3.5
over Lions (Lions)
SEAHAWKS -5
over Vikings (Seahawks)
BROWNS +3.5
over Ravens (Ravens)
COLTS +2.5
over Dolphins (Dolphins)
Think we’re crazy? Think we’re brilliant? Tell us in the comments!
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