Week 4 Preview and Picks

Ed Hochuli appears to be in game shape . . .

Whew.  It took a football disaster, but the referee debacle is finally behind us, and not a moment too soon.  The regular refs will take the field tonight for the Browns-Ravens game and will likely be cheered wildly . . . until the first bad pass interference call.

Onward to week 4.

UPDATED PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS

AFC Division Winners (in order of seed and with expected wins): Ravens (10.5), Jets (10.3), Texans (9.6), Chargers (9.2)
AFC Wild Cards: Bengals (9.0), Bills (8.6)
New since last week: Bills; Dropped out: Steelers (8.5)

NFC Division Winners: Niners (12.5), Falcons (11.7), Bears (11.1), Eagles (9.3)
NFC Wild Cards: Cardinals (11.8), Packers (10.2)
New since last week: Bears; Dropped out: Saints (9.6)

(Note for those keeping tabs: the expected wins formula is now 77% preseason expectation, 23% season rating.)

In the AFC, our projections align nicely with the current records, as every 2-1 and 3-0 team makes it into our projected field.  (And yes, the fact that only 6 of 16 teams have a winning record is a testament to the weakness of the AFC this year.)

Not so in the much stronger NFC, where we've got the 1-2 Packers in the field largely on the strength of their expected rankings -- we pegged them at 12.3 wins at the start of the year, and even though their Pythagorean expectation is middling (57 points for, 54 points against), right now their preseason rating is enough to get them in.  Not so for the Saints, who we had at 14 wins at the start of the year but who have looked ugly all year (83 points for, 102 points against).

Cowboys (8.1 expected wins), Seahawks (7.9), Giants (7.7), and Vikings (4.9) fans all probably have a beef with our projections, as their clubs all have 2-1 records and are left out of the field.

The Niners' surprising loss to Minnesota last week didn't drop them off their perch as the best expected record in the NFL, but the Cardinals (currently a game up on San Francisco in the standings) are right on their heels.  The two square off Monday night during week 8 in Tempe.

HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE -- MORE SIGNIFICANT IN PRIME TIME?

Conventional wisdom holds that home field advantage is enhanced during night games.  The national spotlight is on the game, crowds have a few extra hours to tailgate, and the crowd finds itself hyped up more than usual.  The Ravens even petitioned the league in 2009 to not have to play primetime road games against division rival Pittsburgh.

Is there anything to the notion that teams really are better at home in primetime than at home during normal hours?  To find out, we looked at the 1,024 regular season games played between 2008 and 2011, with a special emphasis on the 174 games played on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, or Monday nights (or, in the case of the Metrodome imploding, Tuesday night).  The results are below:

Comparison of Primetime Games to All Regular Season Games, 2008-2011

	Primetime	All Games
Average home margin of victory	3.7	2.5
Average spread by which home team is favored	2.3	2.4
% of time home team covers spread	52.6%	47.6%

The results are statistically relevant, and they seem to imply that:

- Home teams do a little over a point better at home in primetime than at home in general
- Vegas hasn't quite caught on, as spreads are about equal for the home team in primetime and in general
- Unsurprisingly, home teams have covered in primetime more frequently (52.6%) than in general (47.6%)

Recall that for a bet to be profitable, it has to be right not 50% of the time but 52.4% due to the vig, and the 52.6% figure is (barely) above that.  At the very least, it seems that teams are a little more than a point better at home in primetime than in general.  Which bodes well for Baltimore (tonight), Philadelphia (Sunday), and Dallas (Monday).  Our picks will take this into account for this week and the future.

WEEK 4 PICKS

Worth calling out this week:

- Look for the Titans to make it a game against Houston, who still hasn't played anyone.
- It'll be panic time in Boston Monday morning as the Patriots drop to 1-3
- The Cowboys shouldn't be favored against the Bears, regardless of the venue.  Unless Terrible Jay Cutler shows up.

Last week: 8-7-1 against the spread, 8-8 overall
Season: 26-18-4 against the spread (.591), 32-16 overall (.667)

Picks in order of confidence, with outright winner in parentheses:

Titans + 12 over TEXANS (Texans)
Saints +7.5 over PACKERS (Packers)
BILLS +4 over Patriots (Bills)
Bears + 3.5 over COWBOYS (Bears)
LIONS - 4.5 over Vikings (Lions)
EAGLES -1.5 over Giants (Eagles)
Chargers +1 over CHIEFS (Chargers)
Panthers +7 over FALCONS (Falcons)
JETS +4 over Niners (Niners)
Browns + 12 over RAVENS (Ravens)
Seahawks -2.5 over RAMS (Seahawks)
BRONCOS -6.5 over Raiders (Broncos)
BUCS -3 over Redskins (Bucs)
JAGUARS +2.5 over Bengals (Bengals)
DOLPHINS +6 over Cardinals (Cardinals)
Bye: Steelers, Colts

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