M&T Bank Stadium: The Best Home Advantage in the NFL (and ranking the rest of the stadiums)

The unfriendly confines of Baltimore's M&T Bank Stadium

Perceptions of the relative "toughness" of NFL stadiums are common.  They get thrown around a lot throughout the season, most of them rooted in largely anecdotal evidence.  In 2009, during NFL network's "Top 10" series, the network's top 10 home-field advantages of all-time were as follows (active stadiums in bold)

10. Metropolitan Stadium (Vikings, 1961-1981)
9. Qwest/CenturyLink Field (Seahawks, 2002-present)
8. The Orange Bowl (Dolphins, 1966-1986)
7. Three Rivers Stadium (Steelers, 1970-2000)
6. Veterans Stadium (Eagles, 1971-2002)
5. Arrowhead Stadium (Chiefs, 1972-present)
4. O.co Coliseum (Raiders, 1966-1981 and 1995-present)
3. Memorial Stadium (Colts, 1953-1983)
2. Mile High Stadium (Broncos, 1960-2000)
1. Lambeau Field (Packers, 1975-present)


That seems about right.  EVERYONE talks about how hard it is to play at Lambeau on the road (especially in cold weather).  Arrowhead's sea of red has long been known as a tough venue, and Seattle seems to be the classic "take them at home, go against them on the road" team.  Oakland's Black Hole is a little more surprising to me, but most of that is probably based on the Raiders' first stint there, which is before my time.

After the jump, we'll look at results from the past 10 years and try to quantify home advantage.

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The simplest way to think about home advantage would be to just look at home records in a given venue.  7 teams have changed stadiums since '02, so we've got 39 venues (32 teams + 7 new venues) listed below:

Best Home Record by Venue, 2002-2011 (regular season only, closed venues in italics and shaded in green)

	Venue	Team	Record	Pct.
1	Veterans Stadium	Eagles	7-1	.875
2	Gillette Stadium	Patriots	67-13	.838
3	RCA Dome	Colts	38-10	.791
4	M&T Bank Stadium	Ravens	61-19	.763
5	Heinz Field	Steelers	58-21-1	.731
T6	Lambeau Field	Packers	55-25	.688
T6	Qualcomm Stadium	Chargers	55-25	.688
T6	MetLife Stadium (NYJ)	Jets	11-5	.688
9	Lucas Oil Stadium	Colts	21-11	.656
10	Soldier Field (new)	Bears	46-26	.639
11	CenturyLink Field	Seahawks	51-29	.638
T12	Georgia Dome	Falcons	50-30	.625
T12	Texas Stadium	Cowboys	35-21	.625
14	U of Phoenix Stadium	Cardinals	29-19	.604
T15	Sports Authority Field	Broncos	48-32	.600
T15	HHH Metrodome	Vikings	48-32	.600
17	Lincoln Financial Field	Eagles	43-29	.597
18	LP Field	Titans	47-33	.588
19	EverBank Field	Jaguars	46-34	.575
T20	Arrowhead Stadium	Chiefs	45-35	.563
T20	MetLife Stadium (NYG)	Giants	9-7	.563
T22	Candlestick Park	Niners	44-36	.550
T22	Superdome	Saints	44-36	.550
24	Giants Stadium (NYJ)	Jets	35-29	.547
25	Cowboys Stadium	Cowboys	13-11	.542
26	Giants Stadium (NYG)	Giants	34-30	.531
T27	B of A Stadium	Panthers	42-38	.525
T27	Raymond James Stad.	Bucs	42-38	.525
29	Paul Brown Stadium	Bengals	41-38-1	.519
T30	Ralph Wilson Stadium	Bills	39-41	.488
T30	Reliant Stadium	Texans	39-41	.488
32	Sun Life Stadium	Dolphins	38-42	.475
33	Sun Devil Stadium	Cardinals	15-17	.469
34	FedEx Field	Redskins	36-44	.450
35	Edward Jones Dome	Rams	35-45	.438
36	Ford Field	Lions	32-48	.400
T37	Browns Stadium	Browns	31-49	.388
T37	O.co Coliseum	Raiders	31-49	.388
39	Soldier Field (old)	Bears	3-5	.375
	AVERAGE			.572

This guy is psyched about the Pats' 84% winning percentage at Gillette

So the Eagles' small sample size (one season) at The Vet gave it the best home record, and Gillette Stadium had the best record over the full 10 year period -- the Pats won 84% of their games there.  As for the Black Hole, well, it's tied with Browns Stadium for the worst active home win percentage.  Only a handful of teams are sub-.500 at home.

But you might notice that all the names at the top of the list just happen to be the most successful franchises in the NFL over that time period.  So it stands to reason that their records should be the highest -- they've won a lot of games, period.  We need some way of comparing those home records to some other measure of play.  Ideally, we'd compare home record to neutral record, but since teams don't play games at neutral sites (except the Super Bowl and the occasional game overseas), we'll have to use road games instead.  Below, we'll rank the venues by what we're calling the "home delta," how much better the home team plays at home vs. on the road.

Since teams the same number of games at home and on the road every season (8), we can just take home wins minus road wins to determine the delta.  Below, we'll show each venue with: (1) the "home delta," or how many more games it won at home vs. on the road, (2) the number of seasons they played in the venue (10 max), and (3) how many more games per season it won at home vs. on the road (the max here would be 8, if a team goes 8-0 at home and 0-8 on the road).

 

Best "Home Delta" by Venue, 2002-2011

	Venue	Team	Home Delta (home wins - road wins)	Seasons	Avg. Games Better at Home
1	M&T Bank Stadium	Ravens	28	10	2.8
2	Sun Devil Stadium	Cardinals	10	4	2.5
3	U of Phoenix Stadium	Cardinals	13	6	2.2
4	CenturyLink Field	Seahawks	21	10	2.1
T5	Veterans Stadium	Eagles	2	1	2.0
T5	Soldier Field (old)	Bears	2	1	2.0
T7	HHH Metrodome	Vikings	19	10	1.9
T7	Candlestick Park	Niners	19	10	1.9
9	Ford Field	Lions	17	10	1.7
T10	EverBank Field	Jaguars	16	10	1.6
T10	Arrowhead Stadium	Chiefs	16	10	1.6
T10	Soldier Field (new)	Bears	16	10	1.6
13	MetLife Stadium (NYJ)	Jets	3	2	1.5
T14	Qualcomm Stadium	Chargers	14	10	1.4
T14	Edward Jones Dome	Rams	14	10	1.4
T16	Ralph Wilson Stadium	Bills	13	10	1.3
T16	Reliant Stadium	Texans	13	10	1.3
18	Texas Stadium	Cowboys	9	8	1.3
19	Georgia Dome	Falcons	12.5	10	1.3
T20	Heinz Field	Steelers	11.5	10	1.2
T20	Paul Brown Stadium	Bengals	11.5	10	1.2
22	Giants Stadium (NYJ)	Jets	9	8	1.1
T23	Gillette Stadium	Patriots	11	10	1.1
T23	Lambeau Field	Packers	11	10	1.1
T25	Lucas Oil Stadium	Colts	4	4	1.0
T25	Sports Authority Field	Broncos	10	10	1.0
T25	Raymond James Stad.	Bucs	10	10	1.0
28	LP Field	Titans	8	10	0.8
29	FedEx Field	Redskins	7	10	0.7
T30	Sun Life Stadium	Dolphins	6	10	0.6
T30	Browns Stadium	Browns	6	10	0.6
T30	O.co Coliseum	Raiders	6	10	0.6
T33	RCA Dome	Colts	3	6	0.5
T33	B of A Stadium	Panthers	5	10	0.5
35	Cowboys Stadium	Cowboys	1	3	0.3
36	Giants Stadium (NYG)	Giants	-1	8	-0.1
37	Lincoln Financial Field	Eagles	-1.5	9	-0.2
38	Superdome	Saints	-2	10	-0.2
39	MetLife Stadium (NYG)	Giants	-1	2	-0.5
	AVERAGE				1.2

These guys are bummed about Terrell Suggs but happy about M&T Bank's home advantage

A couple observations:

1. The average team does a little over a game better at home than on the road in a given season.  So a 4-4 team on the road typically goes 5-3 at home, a 2-6 team on the road typically goes 3-5 at home, etc.

2. Some of the names at the top of the home win pct. list are squarely in the middle on the "home delta."  Gillette (Patriots) and Lambeau (Packers) are tied for 23rd  at only 1.1 games better at home, meaning they're almost equally impressive on the road.

3. Only three active stadiums have a home delta of more than 2 -- M&T Bank Stadium (Ravens), U of Phoenix Stadium (Cardinals), and CenturyLink Field (Seahawks), with M&T Bank leading at a delta of nearly 3 games.  This means if they go 4-4 on the road, they're going almost 7-1 at home!  In fact, the Ravens have been better at home than on the road every season since 2002.  They're the only team in the NFL who can make that claim.

4. Among the venues on the NFL Top 10 list at the beginning of the post, only CenturyLink/Qwest (4th) and Arrowhead (10th) show up on the top half of our "delta" list; Lambeau was tied for 23rd, and O.co was tied for 30th.  And the Broncos' new stadium is tied for 25th out of 39 after four decades of dominant at old Mile High Staduim.

5. The "home delta" metric might do a better job showing who stinks on the road rather than who's great at home -- it's impossible to know.

6. Anyone else surprised to see the Cardinals' U of Phoenix Stadium so high?  Not a bad weather team, not known for particularly raucous fans, yet 2.2 games better at home than on the road.

7. Similarly, I'm really surprised the Superdome was so low.  The Saints went 8-0 in the dome last year and seemed unbeatable at home, but in the 9 years prior, they didn't have as much success -- they've actually been better on the road than at home.  Same with the RCA Dome, which I would have expected to be higher (remember the claims that they were pumping in noise?).

8. 3 of the green rows -- stadiums that have closed -- happen to be in the top 6, begging question of whether the new stadiums have a positive or negative effect on a team's home advantage.  Let's look at the 7 teams who have switched stadiums and their home delta at the old and new venue:

Teams That Changed Stadiums, 2002-2011

	Team	Home Delta at Old Stadium	Home Delta at New Stadium	New Stadium – Old Stadium
1	Colts	0.5	1.0	0.5
2	Jets	1.1	1.5	0.4
3	Cardinals	2.5	2.2	-0.3
T4	Giants	-0.1	-0.5	-0.4
T4	Bears	2.0	1.6	-0.4
6	Cowboys	1.3	0.3	-1.0
7	Eagles	2.0	-0.2	-2.2

So of the 7 teams who have changed stadiums since '02, only 2 have had a better home advantage at their new stadium.  In fact, the negative delta for the Eagles and Giants indicates that they've been better on the road than at home!  The Niners, Vikings, and Chargers are all planning new stadiums.  All three showed up in the top half of our home advantage rankings.  They might want to look at table above and the plight of the Cardinals, Giants, Bears, Cowboys, and Eagles, all of whom have seen their home advantages decrease by moving stadiums.

These guys clearly miss The Vet.  Niners, Vikings, and Chargers -- sure you still want to move?

Think we're crazy?  Think we're brilliant?  Tell us in the comments!

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