 |
| Like Russell Case, we're BAAAACK! |
The holidays and various life events brought a brief hiatus to the blog, but the BQB is back and ready for the playoffs.
First, a look at how I did in the preseason. If you want to laugh, check out my
preseason predictions from September. Basically, I stunk:
- I picked 4 of 12 playoff teams correctly. A monkey throwing darts should be able to pick playoff teams at a 37.5% rate, since 12 of 32 teams (37.5%) make the playoffs. 37.5% of 12 is 4.5, so on average, the monkey does better than me.
- On average, I was 3.6 wins off on a given team's win total. Total wins this year ranged from 2 to 13, a range of 11 games. Half of that is 5.5. 3.6 isn't that much smaller. Again, not very good.
- Some of my most fantastic failures: the Colts getting 3 wins, the Broncos, Patriots, and Texans all finishing under .500, the Vikings at less than 2 wins, and the Saints, Cardinals, and Eagles all putting up double-digit wins. Hindsight is 20/20, but for anyone who's watched Arizona and Philadelphia this year, that last part is really funny.
- The few silver linings included nailing Baltimore, Green Bay, and San Francisco as division champs (3 out of 8 for 37.5%; with 4 teams in a division, the blind monkey would only get 25% or 2) and win totals for the Bengals (nailed 10 wins exactly), Ravens (10.2 wins, they got 10), Dallas (7.4 wins, they got 8), and Oakland (4.8 wins, they got 4).
- Last, my Super Bowl pick is still alive and sitting in pretty good shape. San Francisco has a bye and would probably be favored in the NFC Championship game against anyone except Seattle or maybe Atlanta. (Note: the other side of the Super Bowl pick was the Jets. So much for that.)
Full details below:
2012 BQB Preseason Predictions vs. Actuals
Team
|
Actual
Wins
|
Predicted
Wins
|
Delta
|
Playoffs?
|
Predicted
Playoffs?
|
AFC
|
|
|
|
|
|
Broncos
|
13
|
7.1
|
5.9
|
Yes
|
No
|
Patriots
|
12
|
6.8
|
5.2
|
Yes
|
No
|
Texans
|
12
|
6.9
|
5.1
|
Yes
|
No
|
Ravens
|
10
|
10.2
|
0.2
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Colts
|
11
|
2.8
|
8.2
|
Yes
|
No
|
Bengals
|
10
|
10.0
|
0.0
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Steelers
|
8
|
10.5
|
2.5
|
No
|
Yes
|
Chargers
|
7
|
9.3
|
2.3
|
No
|
Yes
|
Dolphins
|
7
|
5.6
|
1.4
|
No
|
No
|
Titans
|
6
|
8.3
|
2.3
|
No
|
Yes
|
Jets
|
6
|
10.9
|
4.9
|
No
|
Yes
|
Bills
|
6
|
8.0
|
2.0
|
No
|
No
|
Browns
|
5
|
2.9
|
2.1
|
No
|
No
|
Raiders
|
4
|
4.8
|
0.8
|
No
|
No
|
Chiefs
|
2
|
5.9
|
3.9
|
No
|
No
|
Jaguars
|
2
|
4.9
|
2.9
|
No
|
No
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NFC
|
|
|
|
|
|
Falcons
|
13
|
10.4
|
2.6
|
Yes
|
No
|
Niners
|
11.5
|
14.3
|
2.8
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Packers
|
11
|
12.3
|
1.3
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Redskins
|
10
|
6.0
|
4.0
|
Yes
|
No
|
Seahawks
|
11
|
7.0
|
4.0
|
Yes
|
No
|
Vikings
|
10
|
1.7
|
8.3
|
Yes
|
No
|
Bears
|
10
|
11.6
|
1.6
|
No
|
Yes
|
Giants
|
9
|
5.1
|
3.9
|
No
|
No
|
Cowboys
|
8
|
7.4
|
0.6
|
No
|
No
|
Rams
|
7.5
|
2.5
|
5.0
|
No
|
No
|
Saints
|
7
|
14.0
|
7.0
|
No
|
Yes
|
Bucs
|
7
|
8.3
|
1.3
|
No
|
No
|
Panthers
|
7
|
9.8
|
2.8
|
No
|
No
|
Cardinals
|
5
|
10.6
|
5.6
|
No
|
Yes
|
Lions
|
4
|
9.2
|
5.2
|
No
|
No
|
Eagles
|
4
|
11.9
|
7.9
|
No
|
Yes
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total team win prediction delta
|
117
|
|
|
Average team win prediction delta
|
3.6
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Onward to the playoff games, which are below in decreasing order of confidence against the spread:
SEASON (15 weeks of published picks): 98-103-1 against the spread (.488), 121-86-1 outright (.585)
Bengals +4.5 over TEXANS (opened at 5); Bengals to win outright
Money on the Bengals moved this line to 4.5, and it seems to be merited. To me, this one's a bit of a no-brainer. The Bengals' last 4 meaningful games (taking out last week's game against Baltimore, when Cincy had already locked up the 6 seed) were 3 road victories: a touchdown win over still-spritely San Diego, a blowout at Philly on a short week, and a must-win at Pittsburgh. Their only loss? By 1 point to an emotionally-charged Dallas team in week 14.
On the flipside, Houston has been spiraling downward since their 42-14 shellacking in New England. They got a home win against Indy but were embarassed in their last 2 games against Minnesota (23-6) and Indianapolis (28-16). A win in either game gives them the bye, and they didn't show up for either. Throw in a crowd that blew its wad in last year's playoff game and is pressing the panic button right now, a running back who's carried the ball a whopping 351 times this year and who's had just 1 100-yard game since Thanksgiving weekend, and things look grim for Gary Kubiak's team. I say the Texans are one-and-done and the Bengals exact revenge from last year and win this one outright.
For what it's worth, Cincy's moneyline is a tasty +180 in this one (implied win probability 36%).
Vikings +7.5 over PACKERS (opened at 9.5); Packers to win outright
Vegas jumped on Minnesota, too. I just don't see how this line is over a touchdown after Minnesota just beat Green Bay. I know it was basically an even game and the game was in the Metrodome, but is the Lambeau Field mystique really all that great? Maybe
10 years ago, but that's all over now. An electric player going from star to superstar was at the center of the game in the link. His name? Michael Vick. Saturday night, Adrian Peterson will have his turn.
I'm predicting a Packers' win, but there's just no way you can give more than a touchdown given the teams' recent history, not to mention that the Vikes have now won 4 in a row.
Colts +6.5 over RAVENS (opened at 6.5); Ravens to win outright
My ratings have these 2 teams as the second- and third-weakest in the field (the weakest? Houston after their late-season swoon). Against just about anyone else, I'm probably picking against Indy. I love the Chuck Pagano story as much as the next guy, but they're performing
way better than expectation this year. The Colts are the only team in the field with a negative point differential. Pythagorean expectation says they should have won 7.2 games; they won 11. The 3.8-game difference makes them the luckiest team in the league this year.
As for Baltimore, they don't have much going for them either, except an experienced defense and a home crowd going up against a rookie QB. That -- plus adrenaline from Ray Lewis' return -- will be enough to win, but not to cover.
REDSKINS +3 over Seahawks (opened at 1); Seahawks to win outright
All the money has gone on Seattle, and they are, in fact, my second-highest rated team in the field (Washington is 8th). But the Skins' home advantage tightens things considerably; my model spits out a 1.5 point win for Seattle.
Practically speaking, what happens in this game is anyone's guess. Both teams start rookie QBs -- who knows what type of game you'll really get from them in their playoff debut? For every Joe Flacco in 2008, there's a Ben Roethlisberger in 2004 or a Matt Ryan in 2008. Both teams are red-hot; Washington has won 7 in a row, Seattle had the best 3-game run of any team in NFL history from weeks 14 through 16. When in doubt, take the points.
And just for kicks, playoff predictions the rest of the way:
WILD CARD ROUND
Bengals over Texans
Ravens over Colts
Seahawks over Redskins
Packers over Vikings
DIVISIONAL ROUND
Broncos over Bengals
Patriots over Ravens
Niners over Packers
Falcons over Seahawks (by the smallest of margins)
CONFERENCE TITLE WEEKEND
Broncos over Patriots
Niners over Falcons
SUPER BOWL XLVII
Niners over Broncos (gotta stick with my preseason pick!)
Think this post was crazy? Brilliant? Speak up in the comments!
Become a Twitter follower @TheBackupQB
Become a Facebook fan at facebook.com/backupquarterbackblog
Email: backupquarterback@gmail.com
